The single-lap picture
P1 Charles Leclerc 1:35.291; P2 Kimi Antonelli +0.042s; P3 Max Verstappen +0.189s; P4 Lewis Hamilton +0.615s; P5 George Russell +0.744s. Tyre choice and run programme matter before reading practice as a race order.
Race weekend · 2026 · Round 18 · USA
ScheduledUnited States Grand Prix
Ferrari brings a new floor, Verstappen brings momentum, and Antonelli has a title chance. The Austin guide: upgrades, car strengths, weather and the one-stop decision.
1d 12h 29mUntil the scheduled race · at page load
Race start
Austin · America/Chicago
Max Verstappen leads the pre weekend projected order.
The circuit
Circuit of the Americas ↗
© OpenStreetMap contributors · ODbL 1.0 · Map data
Approximate outline. Coloured turn groups are not official timing sectors.
- Lap length
- 5.513 km
- Corners
- 20
- Direction
- Anticlockwise
Session
Practice 1
Scheduled
Session
Practice 2
Scheduled
Session
Practice 3
Scheduled
Session
Qualifying
Scheduled
Grand Prix
Race
Scheduled
Practice 2 · the on-track evidence
What the latest session changes
Session ended
What the longer runs showed
Arvid Lindblad: medium, laps 16–29, 1:43.026 median across 9 comparable laps; Max Verstappen: soft, laps 11–24, 1:41.469 median across 8 comparable laps; Pierre Gasly: soft, laps 14–27, 1:42.585 median across 8 comparable laps; Esteban Ocon: medium, laps 15–26, 1:43.411 median across 8 comparable laps; Franco Colapinto: hard, laps 7–20, 1:42.472 median across 8 comparable laps. Fuel loads are unknown; this measures the runs, not an adjusted race-pace ranking.
What that means for Sunday
Soft tyres account for the most usable longer runs in this session. Charles Leclerc stretched a soft run across laps 12–30. The stop decision hinges on extending that tyre life into a full race stint; a short quick run is not enough to commit to one stop.
Practice assessment
Austin: Ferrari’s challenge, Antonelli’s title chance
Next: practice 3
Leclerc topped both Friday sessions, but Antonelli was only 0.042 seconds behind in FP2 and Verstappen was within two tenths. Ferrari’s new aero package has started well; McLaren has balance problems to solve. For Sunday, one stop remains the starting plan, with heat and rear-tyre wear the main threats.
Updated · Standard weekend · No Sprint
The weekend stakes
Friday: Ferrari leads, Mercedes is right there
Leclerc’s 1:35.291 put Ferrari first in FP2, ahead of Antonelli (+0.042s) and Verstappen (+0.189s). Hamilton was fourth, Russell fifth and Lawson sixth. Ferrari has the headline pace; the tiny gap to Antonelli makes this a contest, not a runaway. These are practice laps, with fuel loads still unknown.
Watch on trackMcLaren was seventh and eighth. Norris lost a lap to oversteer and later ran off after locking up; both drivers disliked the balance. Their route back is cleaner handling, not simply a harder push.
What Antonelli needs on Sunday
Antonelli arrives on 340 points, ahead of Russell on 238 and Hamilton on 229. To clinch in Austin he must win, with Russell ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower. Verstappen has 221 points; Leclerc 215 and Norris 201.
Watch on trackFollow Russell and Hamilton as well as the lead: an Antonelli win alone does not settle the title.
What’s new on the cars
McLaren: sharpen the front, recover the slow corners
McLaren has revised the aero around the front corner and suspension, rear-corner furniture and diffuser geometry. Its weekend programme also targets brake reliability and performance. The payoff at COTA would be a car that turns into the esses confidently, then stays predictable under the heavy braking into Turn 12.
Watch on trackNorris and Piastri need to keep their high-speed strength while losing less time in sector three. Strong braking and traction are worth more here than an isolated straight-line speed figure.
Mercedes: get more from the package already on the car
Both Mercedes drivers have the team’s latest package, but Mercedes has declared no new Austin components. This is a setup and execution test after difficult rounds in Malaysia and Singapore. Antonelli can afford to think about the championship; Russell needs to recover his early-season edge.
Watch on trackWatch whether the rear stays planted on the slow exits as the tyres age. Stable traction lets a driver protect the rears without surrendering time on the back straight.
Ferrari: floor, sidepods and diffuser
Ferrari has reworked the floor’s leading edge and board brace, the sidepod inlet and undercut, and several parts of the diffuser. The aim is more floor load with steadier airflow. At COTA, that should help the fast direction changes and loaded corners—provided the gain survives the bumps and does not cost too much speed on the back straight.
Watch on trackCompare Ferrari through the esses and the long Turn 16–18 right-hander, then through the Turn 11 exit. Hamilton’s estimate of about 0.05 seconds for the update was an expectation, not a measured gain.
Red Bull: detail work, with a proven baseline
Red Bull’s declared changes are much smaller: an optional front-wing endplate-footplate vane for tyre-temperature measurement and local load, plus a front-corner gaiter revision to reduce tearing. Verstappen’s challenge rests mainly on the car’s existing pace and its Austin setup, rather than a large new package.
Watch on trackA clean Turn 11 exit matters twice: it protects the rear tyres and sets up the run to the main passing opportunity at Turn 12.
The midfield: floor changes and cooling trade-offs
Racing Bulls brings front- and rear-wing, floor and engine-cover changes. Alpine has rear-floor and rear-wing revisions; Audi has front brake-duct, floorboard and mirror-stay changes. Cadillac adds forward floor-fence changes and sidepod cooling louvres. Williams, Aston Martin and Haas have no new components in the Austin filing.
Watch on trackHot practice rewards cooling and repeatable running. For Cadillac in particular, completing clean stints matters before small aero gains can translate into a better race.
Who this track suits
Verstappen: the strongest form-and-track combination
Verstappen arrives with wins in Malaysia and Singapore, and four victories in the last five Austin Grands Prix. Third in FP2, 0.189 seconds off Leclerc, keeps him firmly in the fight. COTA rewards his ability to link the fast direction changes while still positioning the car for the slower exits.
Watch on trackFerrari has Friday’s fastest lap; Verstappen’s opportunity is to make his pace last. Watch the Turn 11 exit and how much rear grip remains late in each stint.
McLaren: the esses suit it; the slow corners hurt
Piastri identifies high-speed corners as a strength and low-speed corners as a weakness. That gives McLaren a natural opportunity through Turns 3–6, but a vulnerability in the slower final sector. Friday’s handling complaints show the theoretical fit has not yet become a tidy lap.
Watch on trackA calmer rear on entry and exit is the priority. If Norris and Piastri can fix that without giving up the fast-sector speed, they have a route forward from seventh and eighth in FP2.
Gasly’s qualifying form makes Alpine worth following
Gasly has reached Q3 at the last three Grands Prix; Alpine has put at least one car in Q3 at each of the last five. Converting that starting position into points is the next test, especially when an early stop risks dropping the car into traffic.
Watch on trackWatch the gap to the cars behind before Alpine pits, then whether Gasly can hold pace late in the stint rather than just defend on the straights.
Last time outSingapore Grand Prix: read the debrief ↗
The Austin pit wall
The strategy call
One stop or two?
One stop remains the starting plan
Medium–Hard remains the baseline for 56 laps, with Pirelli expecting the C2 to make a long final stint viable. The decisive evidence is sustained C2 pace as the tyres age. A fast qualifying simulation does not settle that: tyre wear and rear overheating are the threats that can force a second stop. Practice 2: tyres in use (24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC): Recorded completed stints used hard, medium, soft tyres. The longest recorded stint spanned 19 laps. Stint length alone does not establish degradation or fuel-corrected race pace.
Watch on trackLook for a consistent late-stint pace rather than a single quick lap. If the rear tyres slide on the slow exits, protecting a one-stop can cost more time than taking fresh rubber.
Does fresh-tyre pace repay another stop?
The extra stop needs enough usable pace to recover roughly 20 seconds. With 20 laps left, that means about one second per lap before traffic and warm-up—illustrative arithmetic, not a measured Austin advantage. Fresh tyres are most useful when the rejoin leaves room to attack.
Watch on trackPair any sustained pace gain with the actual gap to the next traffic group; a theoretical advantage disappears behind a slower car.
Can the hard tyre make an undercut work?
Stopping first trades track position now for a longer final C2 stint. The hard tyre needs to switch on quickly, and the rejoin must be clear enough to use it. If warm-up is slow or the leader’s pace holds, extending can protect tyre life without giving away position.
Watch on trackJudge the whole in-lap and out-lap sequence, then the tyre life left to defend the position.
Weather and tyre life
Forecast
What Sunday’s forecast changes
Sunday’s three-hour race window is forecast at 28°C air temperature, 0.0 mm of rain and 15 km/h average wind. The dry baseline remains one stop, but tyre wear and rear-tyre temperature through the slow final sector will decide whether a second stop earns back its time loss.
Watch on trackCompare Friday’s long runs with Sunday’s conditions before declaring a tyre-saving or wet-weather favourite.
References
- Friday second practice · 23 October ↗
- 2026 driver standings ↗
- Austin weekend preview ↗
- 2026 United States GP schedule ↗
- Austin car changes · FIA filings, 23 October ↗
- McLaren Austin preview ↗
- Mercedes Austin preview ↗
- Thursday driver press conference ↗
- Alpine Austin preview ↗
- Open-Meteo · Sunday race forecast ↗
- Pirelli compound nominations ↗
- 2026 Austin tyre choices ↗
- OpenF1 · completed practice stints ↗
Race forecast
Who is expected to finish ahead?
The projected order and your pick for the win.
Model forecast · Pre Weekend
Projected finishing order
All 22 drivers, ordered by expected finish. Win and podium chances are estimates.
| Rank | Driver | Expected finish | Win | Podium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Max VerstappenRed Bull | 4.40 | 16.5% | 44.3% |
| 02 | George RussellMercedes | 4.82 | 13.3% | 39.0% |
| 03 | Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | 4.87 | 12.7% | 38.2% |
| 04 | Charles LeclercFerrari | 5.10 | 12.5% | 35.3% |
| 05 | Lando NorrisMcLaren | 5.40 | 10.4% | 31.9% |
| 06 | Lewis HamiltonFerrari | 5.61 | 10.0% | 29.4% |
| 07 | Oscar PiastriMcLaren | 6.26 | 7.6% | 25.3% |
| 08 | Isack HadjarRed Bull | 7.85 | 4.6% | 16.6% |
| 09 | Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | 10.33 | 2.4% | 7.7% |
| 10 | Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | 11.14 | 1.8% | 6.0% |
| 11 | Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | 11.28 | 1.9% | 5.8% |
| 12 | Nico HülkenbergAudi | 13.25 | 0.9% | 3.7% |
| 13 | Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | 13.26 | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| 14 | Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | 14.12 | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| 15 | Gabriel BortoletoAudi | 14.16 | 1.0% | 3.3% |
| 16 | Carlos SainzWilliams | 14.93 | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 17 | Esteban OconHaas F1 Team | 15.18 | 0.6% | 2.0% |
| 18 | Alexander AlbonWilliams | 17.08 | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 19 | Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | 17.41 | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 20 | Lance StrollAston Martin | 18.45 | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 21 | Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | 18.55 | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 22 | Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | 19.54 | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Expected finish is the average modeled position.
Based on the provisional race field.
Position ranges & forecast history ↗Circuit history
Recent winners & podiums
3 Grands Prix · –. Sprints excluded.
- Different winners
- 2Across 3 Grands Prix
- Winners from pole
- 1 / 3With a recorded grid position
- Winners starting in the top 3
- 1 / 3With a recorded grid position
- Furthest-back winning start
- P6In this sample
| Race | Winner | Winning team | Winner’s grid | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 ↗ | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | P1 | Lando NorrisMcLaren | Charles LeclercFerrari |
| 2024 ↗ | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | P4 | Carlos SainzFerrari | Max VerstappenRed Bull |
| 2023 ↗ | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | P6 | Lando NorrisMcLaren | Carlos SainzFerrari |
Max Verstappen: 2/3 · Charles Leclerc: 1/3 wins in this sample of up to five Grands Prix.
Who has been winning recently?
4 different winners in the last 6 completed Grands Prix before this event: –. Sprints excluded.
- Max Verstappen2/6 wins
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli2/6 wins
- George Russell1/6 wins
- Lando Norris1/6 wins
Recent race results
- 2026 Singapore Grand Prix · Max Verstappen · Classification ↗
- 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia · Max Verstappen · Classification ↗
- 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix · George Russell · Classification ↗
- 2026 Spanish Grand Prix · Andrea Kimi Antonelli · Classification ↗
- 2026 Italian Grand Prix · Andrea Kimi Antonelli · Classification ↗
- 2026 Dutch Grand Prix · Lando Norris · Classification ↗
Across the season
2026 race analysis
Completed Grands Prix, newest first. Read what decided each race.
Round 17 · final
Singapore Grand Prix
Winner: Max Verstappen
Verstappen controls Singapore while Ferrari’s split calls shape the podium
Max Verstappen led throughout at Marina Bay to secure his first Singapore Grand Prix victory. He defended from Charles Leclerc at the start, built a gap and retained the lead through a soft-to-medium stop. Leclerc finished second and Kimi Antonelli third, while Lewis Hamilton’s decision to stay out during the late VSC left him vulnerable on fading tyres.
Read race analysis ↗Round 16 · final
Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia
Winner: Max Verstappen
Verstappen masters the wet-to-dry crossover at Sepang
Max Verstappen claimed Red Bull’s first victory of the season in the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia. He recovered from losing places at the wet start, switched to slicks under the first Safety Car and controlled the drying race. Kimi Antonelli finished second, while George Russell’s late retirement helped Lewis Hamilton complete a comeback from an unsuccessful slick-tyre start to third.
Read race analysis ↗Round 15 · final
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Winner: George Russell
Russell survives two Safety Cars and Verstappen’s final-lap attack
George Russell won in Baku by just 0.196 seconds after two Safety Cars erased his earlier advantage. Max Verstappen recovered from eighth and closed to the Mercedes at the finish, while Isack Hadjar completed a double Red Bull podium. A restart collision eliminated Lando Norris and both Alpines, and Oscar Piastri’s late lock-up dropped him out of the leading group.
Read race analysis ↗Round 14 · final
Spanish Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
The VSC and a slow McLaren stop hand Madrid to Antonelli
Kimi Antonelli won the inaugural race at Madring after a Virtual Safety Car allowed Mercedes to pit cheaply while leader Lando Norris missed the window. Norris’s seven-second tyre change compounded the loss. Max Verstappen resisted the recovering McLaren for second, while Charles Leclerc’s extended first stint ended without the further interruption Ferrari had sought.
Read race analysis ↗Round 13 · final
Italian Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli turns nineteenth into victory with fresh tyres at Monza
Kimi Antonelli recovered from nineteenth on the grid to win his home Grand Prix. A red flag reshaped the opening phase, and a later Virtual Safety Car let Antonelli take fresh mediums while leader George Russell stayed out on used hards. Antonelli caught and passed his team mate in the closing laps, with Max Verstappen completing the podium.
Read race analysis ↗Round 12 · final
Dutch Grand Prix
Winner: Lando Norris
Norris passes Antonelli and pulls clear after Zandvoort’s red flag
Lando Norris won the final Dutch Grand Prix after overturning Kimi Antonelli’s advantage in a race interrupted by Max Verstappen’s opening-lap crash. Antonelli took the lead at the second standing start, but Norris’s hard-tyre pace brought him back into contention and then ahead. Norris stayed out during a late VSC and still finished comfortably ahead of both Mercedes drivers.
Read race analysis ↗Round 11 · final
Hungarian Grand Prix
Winner: Lando Norris
Norris wins the McLaren duel before Piastri’s late retirement
Lando Norris won at the Hungaroring after recovering the lead from Oscar Piastri through the pit sequence. Piastri had passed him on the opening lap, but traffic, contact and a late gearbox failure ended his challenge. Max Verstappen finished second and Kimi Antonelli third as the race combined contrasting stop counts, a late VSC and costly penalties behind the winner.
Read race analysis ↗Round 10 · final
Belgian Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli catches Leclerc to recover the Spa lead
Kimi Antonelli won at Spa after Ferrari used a Virtual Safety Car to put Charles Leclerc ahead through the pit stops. Antonelli closed the deficit and passed Leclerc with ten laps remaining, finishing 1.952 seconds clear. Max Verstappen completed the podium, while George Russell’s race ended in the opening-lap gravel after contact with Lewis Hamilton.
Read race analysis ↗Round 9 · final
British Grand Prix
Winner: Charles Leclerc
Leclerc wins as Antonelli’s challenge breaks and the race ends under Safety Car
Charles Leclerc took the lead at the start and won a British Grand Prix shaped by Kimi Antonelli’s wheel-shield failure and Max Verstappen’s late crash. Antonelli had been closing after a longer first stint before needing repairs. The final Safety Car ran to the flag, allowing George Russell to take second by staying out while Lewis Hamilton pitted.
Read race analysis ↗Round 8 · final
Austrian Grand Prix
Winner: George Russell
Russell holds off the closing Verstappen and Antonelli
George Russell converted pole into victory at the Red Bull Ring, controlling his pit windows before a late charge from Max Verstappen and Kimi Antonelli compressed the leading group. Verstappen finished 1.611 seconds behind, with Antonelli close behind him. Earlier mistakes and awkward VSC timing had cost Antonelli ground, while Ferrari’s more aggressive stopping pattern did not deliver a podium.
Read race analysis ↗Round 7 · final
Barcelona Grand Prix
Winner: Lewis Hamilton
Hamilton’s three-stop attack delivers his first Ferrari Grand Prix win
Lewis Hamilton won for Ferrari after an aggressive three-stop strategy and a well-timed Virtual Safety Car left him ahead of George Russell. Hamilton’s earlier stops exploited fresh tyres, and his final stop preserved the lead. Russell finished second and Lando Norris third, while Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc both retired near the end of the race.
Read race analysis ↗Round 6 · final
Monaco Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli survives Monaco’s interruptions for a fifth straight win
Kimi Antonelli led from pole and controlled a Monaco race disrupted by retirements, penalties, a Safety Car and a red flag. He rebuilt his advantage after each interruption to win ahead of Lewis Hamilton and Isack Hadjar. Charles Leclerc crashed late, while George Russell’s failure to serve an earlier penalty forced a costly drive-through after the restart.
Read race analysis ↗Round 5 · final
Canadian Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Russell’s failure ends the Mercedes duel and releases Antonelli
Kimi Antonelli took a fourth consecutive victory after a close fight with George Russell ended when Russell lost power on lap 30. The resulting Virtual Safety Car gave Antonelli a convenient tyre change, and he controlled the second half. Lewis Hamilton passed Max Verstappen late for second, while McLaren’s intermediate-tyre gamble unravelled on a drying track.
Read race analysis ↗Round 4 · final
Miami Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli’s undercut defeats Norris in Miami
Kimi Antonelli won a race of changing leaders by using an earlier pit stop to get ahead of Lando Norris. The McLaren stayed close but could not reverse the order, finishing 3.264 seconds behind. Oscar Piastri recovered to third, while opening-lap trouble for Max Verstappen and a late spin and penalty for Charles Leclerc reshaped the result.
Read race analysis ↗Round 3 · final
Japanese Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli turns Safety Car timing into the championship lead
Kimi Antonelli won at Suzuka after a poor start was reversed by the timing of the Safety Car. Mercedes kept him out long enough to stop under the neutralisation and retain first place, while Oscar Piastri and George Russell had already pitted. Antonelli pulled clear of Piastri, and Charles Leclerc resisted Russell to complete the podium.
Read race analysis ↗Round 2 · final
Chinese Grand Prix
Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli claims his first win as Hamilton reaches Ferrari’s podium
Kimi Antonelli recovered from losing the lead at the start to take his first Grand Prix victory. Mercedes converted an early Safety Car stop into another one-two, with George Russell recovering after struggling to warm his hard tyres. Lewis Hamilton won Ferrari’s internal battle for third, while separate electrical problems prevented either McLaren from starting.
Read race analysis ↗Round 1 · final
Australian Grand Prix
Winner: George Russell
Russell turns an early stop into a Mercedes one-two
George Russell won the season opener after Mercedes committed to a one-stop race following an early Virtual Safety Car. Charles Leclerc had seized the lead at the start, but Ferrari stayed out during the neutralisation and later lost track position. Kimi Antonelli completed the Mercedes one-two, with Leclerc third after Ferrari could not close the gap.
Read race analysis ↗Still to come